By Andrew Cohn
CBSNews​.com Legal Analyst

Just three days after the Supreme Court heard a death penal­ty case and sched­uled anoth­er one for next term, and just one week after a land­mark com­mis­sion in Illinois released its omi­nous find­ings on how the penal­ty is met­ed out, a fed­er­al judge in New York threat­ened to declare the fed­er­al death penal­ty uncon­sti­tu­tion­al in general.

Are these iso­lat­ed and coin­ci­den­tal actions by uncon­nect­ed jurists? Or is the tide slow­ing and sure­ly turn­ing against the death penal­ty in this country?

The answer is nei­ther and both. There is no legal con­nec­tion between what U.S. District Judge Jed. S. Rakoff did Thursday in a case involv­ing two New York men charged with con­spir­a­cy and rack­e­teer­ing in a drug killing case and the issues the jus­tices are look­ing at this term or next. Those Supreme Court cas­es don’t involve the death penal­ty under fed­er­al law. They involve, in Ring v.Arizona, the extent to which judges instead of juries may con­sid­er aggra­vat­ing fac­tors in a cap­i­tal case, and, in Abdur’Rahman v. Tennessee, whether the defen­dant was improp­er­ly denied cer­tain appel­late reviews which might have caught cer­tain crit­i­cal mis­takes made by his attorney.

Likewise there is no direct link between the loom­ing Supreme Court deci­sion on the con­sti­tu­tion­al­i­ty of exe­cut­ing retard­ed peo­ple and the rec­om­men­da­tions of the Illinois Commission on Capital Punishment, which in excru­ci­at­ing detail con­clud­ed that there are major prob­lems with death penal­ty pro­ce­dures in Illinois and by exten­sion any oth­er state that per­mits cap­i­tal pun­ish­ment. I’m sure the jus­tices and their clerks paid atten­tion to the Illinois study but so far its con­clu­sions haven’t seeped into the court’s official parlance.

By the same token, how­ev­er, there is no get­ting around the fact that skep­ti­cism about the accu­ra­cy of death ver­dicts is grow­ing with­in the law. It’s a skep­ti­cism that has reached as high in the law as Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, who told the Minnesota Women Lawyers last sum­mer that she was con­cerned by the num­ber of inno­cent peo­ple sen­tenced to death by a sys­tem which clear­ly isn’t accu­rate enough to gen­er­ate the cor­rect result each and every time. O’Connor also report­ed­ly expressed con­cern about the dis­parate qual­i­ty of court-appoint­ed coun­sel in death cas­es. She is a key vote on the court and if her extra­or­di­nar­i­ly can­did con­cerns turn into con­crete votes, the court may begin to lim­it the scope of the death penal­ty just as sure­ly as it has extend­ed it over the past quar­ter of a century.

And it is a skep­ti­cism which has extend­ed down into the trench­es of the judi­cia­ry ? fed­er­al tri­al court judges ? one of whom, Rakoff, wrote Thursday that he would void the death penal­ty under fed­er­al law unless the gov­ern­ment can con­vince him oth­er­wise in the next month or so. Rakoff came to his con­clu­sion by turn­ing on its head the Supreme Court’s own assump­tions about the fed­er­al death penal­ty. The court had pre­sumed that with cer­tain death penal­ty safe­guards in place it would be high­ly unlike­ly that an exe­cut­ed per­son would sub­se­quent­ly be dis­cov­ered to be innocent.”

That assump­tion no longer seems ten­able,” Rakoff wrote. Despite the impor­tant goals and undoubt­ed pop­u­lar­i­ty of this fed­er­al act and sim­i­lar state statutes, leg­is­la­tures and courts have always been queasy about the pos­si­bil­i­ty that an inno­cent per­son, mis­tak­en­ly con­vict­ed and sen­tenced to death under such a statute, might be exe­cut­ed before he could vin­di­cate his inno­cence.” His proof? A Columbia Law School study that indi­cates there is a whop­ping prej­u­di­cial error” rate in the death penal­ty sys­tem of 68 per­cent. Rakoff also could have cit­ed the Illinois study, and per­haps will if the gov­ern­ment is unable to con­vince him oth­er­wise by the end of May.

I don’t know whether or to what extent the death penal­ty in America is in trou­ble, but I know that this is how con­sti­tu­tion­al change occurs in this coun­try. The facts push the law. And now oppo­nents of the death penal­ty have some unde­ni­able facts on their side. They have stud­ies. They have schol­ars. They have, in effect, a defend­able fac­tu­al base upon which to rely in chal­leng­ing the legal sta­tus quo. That’s what void­ed the death penal­ty in the ear­ly 1970s and it’s what brought it back a few years lat­er. It’s also what could void it again. Stubborn facts,” as they say, can’t be ignored, even by Supreme Court Justices.

Rakoff’s rul­ing, if he final­izes it, won’t by itself reach beyond the case before him. But if the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upholds his rul­ing upon appeal, the fed­er­al death penal­ty will be void in New York, Connecticut and Vermont. And if anoth­er fed­er­al appeals court views the 2nd Circuit’s rul­ing with approval, per­haps fed­er­al pros­e­cu­tors in a few oth­er states won’t be able to rely upon a fed­er­al death penal­ty. Even anoth­er fed­er­al tri­al judge would be able to look upon Rakoff’s rul­ing for sup­port should that oth­er judge be so inclined to strike down cap­i­tal pun­ish­ment. Of course, if the Supreme Court sides with him, the fed­er­al death penal­ty itself could be on the rocks. And if the fed­er­al death penal­ty goes out the win­dow, state death penal­ty statutes will be in big trou­ble, too.

That’s a parade of hor­ri­bles that death penal­ty pro­po­nents prob­a­bly don’t want to imag­ine. And they cer­tain­ly may nev­er have to imag­ine it. In order for Rakoff’s rul­ing to rep­re­sent the cut­ting edge of this mon­u­men­tal change, lit­er­al­ly dozens and dozens of oth­er judges around the coun­try would have to buy into his view that the death penal­ty sys­tem is so bro­ken that it can­not be fixed. That may be a stretch, espe­cial­ly since there are plen­ty of judges around the coun­try who have absolute­ly no prob­lem what­so­ev­er with the impo­si­tion of the death penal­ty. Then there’s the Constitution itself, which does­n’t seem to require per­fect jus­tice or per­fect­ly accu­rate pro­ce­dures even when a defen­dan­t’s life is on the line. You can bet that’ll be in the gov­ern­men­t’s brief to be filed with Rakoff soon.

So legal­ly speak­ing, some­thing is def­i­nite­ly up” with the death penal­ty these days. The Supreme Court appears par­tic­u­lar­ly inter­est­ed in tin­ker­ing with it. More and more law schools and out­side schol­ars are research­ing its effects. And now those on the front line of the sys­tem are chal­leng­ing it. It may sur­vive, strength­ened, or it may fall, but it won’t like­ly stay the same for very long.