In his Scientific American mag­a­zine arti­cle enti­tled, ​“The Case of the Unsolved Crime Decline,” crim­i­nol­o­gist Richard Rosenfeld exam­ines why U.S. crime rates dropped more than 40% in the 1990’s and what lessons cur­rent pol­i­cy-mak­ers can learn from this decline. Rosenfeld pro­vides an overview and eval­u­a­tion of pre­vi­ous research show­ing a link in the crime rate decline and fac­tors such as changes in demo­graph­ics, law-enforce­ment prac­tices, eco­nom­ic con­di­tions, incar­cer­a­tion rates, domes­tic vio­lence and firearm poli­cies, and the use of guns by young drug deal­ers. He con­cludes that while each of these may have con­tributed toward the decline in seri­ous vio­lent and prop­er­ty crime rates, some of the poli­cies also pro­duced unin­tend­ed pol­i­cy effects that could have been avoid­ed if research-based pol­i­cy exper­i­ments had been con­duct­ed. For exam­ple, stiffer sen­tences for adult drug offend­ers, a pol­i­cy designed to deter crime, may actu­al­ly facil­i­tate the crim­i­nal careers and short­en the lives of the youth­ful drug sell­ers who take their place. Based on his research, Rosenfeld pro­vides three lessons that he believes soci­ety can draw that may help antic­i­pate and even head off the next crime rate rise. These lessons include divid­ing crime trends into their com­po­nent parts, look­ing for unin­tend­ed pol­i­cy effects and engag­ing in research-based pol­i­cy exper­i­ments before new pro­grams are imple­ment­ed. (Scientific American, February 2004) See Deterrence. See also, Resources.

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