In 2009, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) released a land­mark report titled Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward, in which it raised sig­nif­i­cant ques­tions about the valid­i­ty of every foren­sic sci­ence dis­ci­pline except DNA analy­sis. The report con­clud­ed, no foren­sic method has been rig­or­ous­ly shown to have the capac­i­ty to con­sis­tent­ly, and with a high degree of cer­tain­ty, demon­strate a con­nec­tion between evi­dence and a spe­cif­ic indi­vid­ual or source.” In a report for The Intercept, jour­nal­ists Liliana Segura and Jordan Smith assess the mea­ger progress in foren­sic sci­ence in the decade fol­low­ing the release of the NAS report and explore how pol­i­tics, tra­di­tion, and iner­tia have con­tributed to an ongo­ing cri­sis with­in foren­sic sci­ence that remain[s] woefully unresolved.”

Forensic sci­ence, includ­ing fin­ger­print analy­sis, hair analy­sis, bite mark com­par­i­son, and arson inves­ti­ga­tion, is wide­ly used in crim­i­nal pros­e­cu­tions, but it has been found to con­tribute to wrong­ful con­vic­tions in a star­tling num­ber of cas­es. A 2017 DPIC review of 34 death-row exon­er­a­tions found that junk sci­ence con­tributed to near­ly one-third (32.4%) of those wrong­ful con­vic­tions. An FBI review of hair analy­sis found that ana­lysts had made erro­neous state­ments in at least 33 death penal­ty cas­es, but many of those nev­er had an oppor­tu­ni­ty for recon­sid­er­a­tion – by the time the report was released, nine of those defen­dants had been exe­cut­ed and five had died of oth­er caus­es. Segura and Smith explain, high-pro­file foren­sics scan­dals and a ris­ing tal­ly of exon­er­a­tions have made it hard for even the most stub­born foren­sic experts to ignore the prob­lem of junk science.”

In 2016, a fol­low-up report by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology warned, Without appro­pri­ate esti­mates of accu­ra­cy, an examiner’s state­ment that two sam­ples are sim­i­lar — or even dis­tin­guish­able — is sci­en­tif­i­cal­ly mean­ing­less: It has no pro­ba­tive val­ue and con­sid­er­able poten­tial for prej­u­di­cial impact. Nothing — not train­ing, per­son­al expe­ri­ence nor pro­fes­sion­al prac­tices — can sub­sti­tute for ade­quate empir­i­cal demon­stra­tion of accu­ra­cy.” Yet, to the dis­may of Harry Edwards, a senior judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia who co-authored the NAS report, law enforce­ment and pros­e­cu­tors have active­ly opposed reform. The group that sur­prised me the most were pros­e­cu­tors,” he said. Not just at Department of Justice, but pros­e­cu­tors gen­er­al­ly. Because I would’ve assumed, in my naïve way, that they would’ve wel­comed a report say­ing we need more and bet­ter research to val­i­date these prac­tices, and to make them bet­ter. Because that serves both pros­e­cu­tors and defen­dants well. … I think a num­ber of them were wor­ried that if you took the report seri­ous­ly and start­ed doubt­ing some of what they had been doing, this would open cas­es that they thought were long gone.”

Edwards par­tic­u­lar­ly not­ed the prob­lems with bite-mark evi­dence. I was flab­ber­gast­ed when I lis­tened to the per­son that was tes­ti­fy­ing about bite marks,” he recalled. There were no stud­ies of any con­se­quence on val­i­da­tion, reli­a­bil­i­ty, and I didn’t have to be a sci­en­tist to under­stand that what he was say­ing was frag­ile, at best.” Bite-mark evi­dence relies on two assump­tions, Smith and Segura explain: First, that human den­ti­tion, like DNA, is unique; sec­ond, that skin is a suit­able medi­um for record­ing this unique­ness. The prob­lem is that nei­ther premise has been proven true; in fact, sci­en­tif­ic research con­duct­ed to date has sug­gest­ed the oppo­site — and that bite-mark match­ing is an entire­ly sub­jec­tive affair.” It has been impli­cat­ed in 31 wrong­ful con­vic­tions, and a study that asked 39 ana­lysts cer­ti­fied by the American Board of Forensic Odontology to exam­ine 100 case stud­ies found that they unan­i­mous­ly agreed on whether the evi­dence was a human bite mark in only four cas­es. The Texas Forensic Science Commission con­clud­ed there is no sci­en­tif­ic basis for stat­ing that a par­tic­u­lar pat­terned injury can be asso­ci­at­ed to an individual’s den­ti­tion,” and rec­om­mend­ed a mora­to­ri­um on its use. Despite this evi­dence, sev­er­al lead­ers in foren­sic odon­tol­ogy have dug in their heels. One den­tist, Dr. Robert Dorion, called the focus on wrong­ful con­vic­tions fake news,” and assert­ed, with­out evi­dence, that wrong­ful con­vic­tions con­nect­ed to bite marks had ceased.”

In the ten years since the NAS report, a few reforms have been made, includ­ing the National Commission on Forensic Science ban­ning its prac­ti­tion­ers from using the mis­lead­ing phrase rea­son­able degree of sci­en­tif­ic cer­tain­ty” in their tes­ti­mo­ny. Judge Edwards said, we’re not where we ought to be” in terms of imple­ment­ing reform. Most par­tic­u­lar­ly, he is dis­ap­point­ed that a key rec­om­men­da­tion from the report has not been adopt­ed: the for­ma­tion of a nation­al group that was inde­pen­dent, sep­a­rate from law enforce­ment, that over­sees foren­sic sci­ence. That hasn’t hap­pened,” he said.

(Liliana Segura and Jordan Smith, BAD EVIDENCE: Ten Years After a Landmark Study Blew the Whistle on Junk Science, the Fight Over Forensics Rages On, The Intercept, May 5, 2019.) See Innocence.

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